TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Peter be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,459

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,013 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes3c8,932$233 inLost-$232.93922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-59.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5d6…64b8backed Yes6c982.14$63 inLost-$63.14955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+111.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b46…7335backed Yes12c641.38$80 inLost-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xab2b…c514backed Yes19c522.44$100 inLost-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes20c350$72 inLost-$71.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-83.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc46a…c10dbacked Yes20c250$50 inLost-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes17c200$34 inLost-$341435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes15c200$30 inLost-$301421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+227.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No80c200$160 inWon+$401435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6205…d7b8backed Yes20c159.54$32 inLost-$32520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-50.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6a…03efbacked Yes19c156.3$30 inLost-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3be…94e4backed Yes17c150$26 inLost-$25.5850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+114.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No80c149.99$120 inWon+$30540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+258.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c9…9d9cbacked No78c128.15$100 inWon+$28.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfda…5709backed Yes17c115$20 inLost-$19.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes9c114.32$10 inLost-$10.441136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed Yes20c100$20 inLost-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No80c97.35$78 inWon+$19.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes21c95.24$20 inLost-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c95$13 inLost-$12.961127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes20c50.46$10 inLost-$10425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa211…657fbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost-$11450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No80c12.52$10 inWon+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.