Poker · resolved market
Will Martin Kabrhel be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7756a8cfb823a563131e8f06d3100cf503d9cd2b5ed6c843d08c412192694918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 3c | 7,975$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 3c | 1,006$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…64b8backed Yes | 7c | 836.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Yes | 8c | 710$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…4e11backed Yes | 5c | 520$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 10c | 427.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…d7b8backed Yes | 10c | 289.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…6230backed Yes | 12c | 277.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 5c | 245.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 11c | 191$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…5bb1backed Yes | 10c | 180$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 8c | 129$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 10c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 10c | 109.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6127…27debacked Yes | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Martin Kabrhel be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?this page
- Will Alan Keating be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?Yes won
- Will Brandon Steven be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Peter be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Senor Tilt be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Stanley Tang be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Steve be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Turbo be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.