Poker · resolved market
Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x573021ee3460d2945d5c779f9ebd5a63bd43afe40be4a2da45d54537813dda85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 14c | 5,661$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…6bd2backed Yes | 35c | 1,809$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,776$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…8df5backed Yes | 19c | 1,390$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…6d37backed Yes | 36c | 555.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed No | 55c | 431.41$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 53c | 385.78$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed Yes | 8c | 371.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…b5dbbacked Yes | 16c | 320$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…ff83backed Yes | 31c | 300.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 290$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 18c | 275.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 13c | 265$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Yes | 33c | 260$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 240$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 31c | 230.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 30c | 225.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…b412backed Yes | 11c | 218.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +227.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed No | 75c | 165$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…ee23backed Yes | 37c | 159.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 69c | 150.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5e…9d38backed Yes | 42c | 142.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…578dbacked Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +127%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…26a2backed Yes | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d31…5a0abacked Yes | 23c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…b70cbacked Yes | 13c | 119.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 66c | 116$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…70ddbacked Yes | 18c | 115.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 20c | 115.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…961abacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 12c | 107.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc663…746cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked Yes | 29c | 97.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3be…94e4backed Yes | 20c | 92.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2672…e1e8backed No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…013cbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…28e2backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 80c | 46.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…25d0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?this page
- Will Alan Keating be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?Yes won
- Will Brandon Steven be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Martin Kabrhel be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Peter be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Senor Tilt be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Stanley Tang be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Steve be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Turbo be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.