Poker · resolved market
Will Senor Tilt be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6052623bc2811dc4f019ba0e575c1cf402033727a4990baec5d6d557f4963532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 4c | 9,794$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…32ddbacked Yes | 21c | 5,567$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 78c | 1,713$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…94b4backed Yes | 9c | 1,135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…64b8backed No | 74c | 809.18$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…b412backed Yes | 12c | 697.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 79c | 555$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 7c | 547.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 6c | 490.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 457.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Yes | 21c | 399.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 7c | 360$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…d7b8backed Yes | 25c | 230.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 18c | 212$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ee…d1dbbacked No | 78c | 202$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 6c | 201.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…9b51backed Yes | 20c | 195.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5e…9d38backed Yes | 28c | 179.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…d4cdbacked No | 73c | 136.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576f…8abdbacked Yes | 23c | 131.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 129.49$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 78c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 18c | 122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…4e11backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x158b…a944backed Yes | 20c | 118.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3be…94e4backed No | 77c | 105.64$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 104.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…4253backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed Yes | 25c | 80.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 70.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c6…4bf7backed Yes | 30c | 65.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…578dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +127%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e5…d381backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 79c | 42.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed No | 80c | 41.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…710cbacked No | 78c | 29.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…70ddbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6a…d37fbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e3…cb1abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…e922backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Senor Tilt be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?this page
- Will Alan Keating be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?Yes won
- Will Brandon Steven be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Martin Kabrhel be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Peter be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Stanley Tang be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Steve be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Turbo be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.