Movies · resolved market
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd731b047282da3e4703ad66da8cb3125b4adab2346996ef7f9b9c8a43d32f822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 51c | 428$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked Yes | 49c | 420$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes | 7c | 397$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed No | 51c | 340$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…d0d3backed Yes | 43c | 321.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 39c | 314$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 22c | 288$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked No | 61c | 268$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes | 37c | 245$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 49c | 238$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 39c | 228$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 61c | 222$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 49c | 176$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ef…a56fbacked Yes | 10c | 175.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 51c | 171$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…af79backed No | 77c | 124$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed No | 63c | 119$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 63c | 114$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 79c | 114$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed No | 51c | 114$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 113.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed Yes | 49c | 97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 49c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7602backed No | 79c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 49c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 23c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed No | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…3717backed No | 48c | 56.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)this page
- Will "Jay Kelly" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)No won
- Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.