Movies · resolved market
Will "Jay Kelly" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb0fc9b328ace967135b70690ef33abeb6a84b59c887009498a4336c7638abcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ea7…d0d3backed Yes | 10c | 389.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 27c | 301$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…07cfbacked Yes | 10c | 261.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.32per pick | 30cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 35c | 230.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 73c | 228$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 8c | 184$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 156.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed Yes | 9c | 146$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +65%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 15c | 97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…b341backed Yes | 12c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked No | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 80c | 52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…54e5backed Yes | 52c | 51.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Jay Kelly" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)this page
- Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)Yes won
- Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.