Weather · resolved market
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50da12cd82a367a92e7d18f4d65397e883ab86a3b86f1dd906330c6b835940e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked No | 3c | 1,917$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,091$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No | 3c | 850$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 56c | 400$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 44c | 379$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 55c | 342$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed Yes | 37c | 323$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed No | 59c | 303$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed No | 56c | 290$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 33c | 287.71$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed Yes | 40c | 287$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 63c | 273$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed Yes | 36c | 228$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed No | 56c | 197$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 45c | 194$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 65c | 175$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 63c | 165$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked No | 61c | 159$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked No | 64c | 159$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 44c | 155$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…a978backed Yes | 37c | 150.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No | 64c | 149$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 38c | 148$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 45c | 142$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 71c | 140.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed No | 64c | 136$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 36c | 133$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 36c | 129$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 124.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed No | 60c | 123$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 62c | 116$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 37c | 114$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed No | 64c | 112$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…09d2backed Yes | 45c | 110.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed Yes | 37c | 109$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 36c | 107$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa231…a91ebacked Yes | 50c | 100.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 27c | 99.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 47c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…8cf7backed Yes | 38c | 98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 38c | 94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 57c | 85.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 57c | 81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed No | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 46c | 54.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…d215backed No | 63c | 54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 62c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…2dafbacked Yes | 46c | 51.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 62c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3d…c636backed Yes | 74c | 49.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 42.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked Yes | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…d9fcbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed No | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…6c59backed Yes | 50c | 33.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4250…d9d4backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed No | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?this page
- Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in December?No won
- Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?No won
- Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.