Weather · resolved market
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30b17ba0b323730a3e88ee5c0a2ce59c731a802d46dcd81795469c18ff1f79ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd52b…783cbacked Yes | 7c | 872.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 28c | 482$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 72c | 374$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 58c | 353$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 27c | 323$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 73c | 308$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 40c | 297$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 60c | 260$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 42c | 243$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 58c | 198$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed No | 60c | 191$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked Yes | 26c | 151$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 40c | 138$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…d68ebacked No | 74c | 133$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed No | 71c | 121$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked Yes | 50c | 109.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 33c | 106$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes | 33c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 42c | 96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 67c | 96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 29c | 94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 42c | 92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 77c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed Yes | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed No | 72c | 87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…a54dbacked Yes | 42c | 76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 50c | 72.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed No | 60c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…83b9backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?this page
- Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in December?No won
- Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?No won
- Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.