UFC · resolved market
Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41cf6d4186209a59697ffed6b26f8afd1fa8bbc7a6887ac364216450f43ecafd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,426 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked No | 70c | 703$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 27c | 470$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked No | 73c | 293$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 73c | 287$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 30c | 240$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 30c | 233$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed Yes | 30c | 230$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 55c | 227$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 45c | 227$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3083…ee61backed No | 67c | 148.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed Yes | 21c | 85.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 45c | 78.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ca…04b5backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…ae8dbacked Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…1cefbacked Yes | 40c | 37.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…2297backed Yes | 61c | 32.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed No | 49c | 28.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…5312backed Yes | 49c | 24.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?this page
- Will the announcers say "BMF" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Blood" or "Bloody" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Butterfly" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Championship" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Combination" or "Sequence" 5+ times during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Dividend" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Gas Tank" or "Tired" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Holloway" or "Oliveira" 15+ times during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Knockout" or "Knock Out" or "Knocked Out" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Nasty" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Nice Jab" or "Good Jab" 3+ times during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Spinning" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Submission" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Takedown" or "Take down" 5+ times during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Triangle" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "UFC History" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "What a fight" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "White House" or "Trump" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.