UFC · resolved market
Will the announcers say "White House" or "Trump" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85c275027dfe3d4d9eb470e7cc18e19dcba3066ff0cbece132833cb3fb018929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,833 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 72c | 1,761$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.72 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6b…9744backed Yes | 2c | 990$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2a…5911backed Yes | 42c | 596.79$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…4c33backed Yes | 40c | 503.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 54c | 427.83$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.77 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 55c | 409.69$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 56c | 252.08$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 53c | 250$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…691dbacked Yes | 43c | 234.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…d046backed Yes | 47c | 213.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda40…3e37backed Yes | 39c | 185.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204a…a4e2backed Yes | 55c | 176.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…2df7backed Yes | 34c | 147.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…7420backed Yes | 22c | 127.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…c789backed Yes | 45c | 122.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd288…6e6bbacked Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e32…18e6backed Yes | 13c | 113$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed No | 60c | 112.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 42c | 109.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…4fc3backed Yes | 52c | 104.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 99.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e1…b64dbacked Yes | 40c | 98.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…c7f1backed Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…f2e6backed Yes | 25c | 87.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a24…bdc5backed Yes | 40c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked No | 59c | 63.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 63.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 68c | 55.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…2c52backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca5…9343backed Yes | 40c | 50.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 48.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…7d5abacked Yes | 57c | 47.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…1cefbacked No | 61c | 45.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 57c | 40.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…5312backed Yes | 44c | 36.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12de…172fbacked Yes | 61c | 30.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked No | 55c | 29.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e00…5999backed Yes | 59c | 23.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 56c | 21.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed No | 64c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…677abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…83e9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…7774backed Yes | 65c | 16.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the announcers say "White House" or "Trump" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?this page
- Will the announcers say "BMF" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Blood" or "Bloody" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Butterfly" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Championship" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Combination" or "Sequence" 5+ times during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Dividend" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Gas Tank" or "Tired" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Holloway" or "Oliveira" 15+ times during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Knockout" or "Knock Out" or "Knocked Out" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Nasty" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Nice Jab" or "Good Jab" 3+ times during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Spinning" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
- Will the announcers say "Submission" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Takedown" or "Take down" 5+ times during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Triangle" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "UFC History" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "What a fight" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.