TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,727

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,727 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5aec…b4cebacked No8c2,418$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x115a…e4a6backed No10c1,767$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No10c1,697$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.373933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No12c934.54$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2715641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No6c788.09$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.911136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No4c780.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.92537.5%4 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked No13c770$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.644334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No4c749.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30618.2%5 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4999…cc96backed No10c729.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x211e…35ddbacked Yes43c648.02$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.021643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed No16c637$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.921225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3157…4b88backed No8c625.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No9c599.9$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.993125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked No10c572.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No9c555.76$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.512321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed No17c547$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.991428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No10c533.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.02496.1%3 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No10c525.16$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1236538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed Yes71c520$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.052458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaece…87f3backed No20c511.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No17c511$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.754645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed No11c488.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.211921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed No14c471$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.941030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No16c467$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3313337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No10c460.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.873721.6%8 W · 29 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No6c445$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.667136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked No16c444$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6705…7ddcbacked No17c406$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No7c350.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.57736.8%5 W · 68 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed No30c346$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.81346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4b…1fb3backed No26c345$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed No27c336$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.721464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No30c336$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.83751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No10c332.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.021549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4653…65c5backed No25c327$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.751136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No6c323.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.868332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ead…6c75backed Yes75c311$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.751225%3 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes71c310$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.541553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No56c295.08$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.3450633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked No17c295$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.151330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x647e…88c8backed Yes70c293$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.91573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick48cpaid+46.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked No17c293$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.811533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked No9c288.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.642119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed No9c286.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.612119%4 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked Yes75c282$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.52853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked No9c281.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.042119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.786955.1%38 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes76c277.44$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8418444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No6c275.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.27894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed No17c271$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.071827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No7c270.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.34983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa284…fbbabacked No7c268.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%0 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed Yes79c267$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.071258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x385f…3c30backed Yes74c260$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.61216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-77.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8f…82c7backed No12c258.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.09333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed No30c258$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.42250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No10c256.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.642013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9818…7cd3backed No14c255$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb728…fc92backed Yes51c250$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.741233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No7c249.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2523041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed No20c244.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.382045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked No21c244$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.343336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No10c238.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.775119.6%10 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked No25c219$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.752450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No26c215$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.93727%10 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No10c214.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.472781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2a…6f46backed No10c211.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.631735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed No25c204$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed No30c202$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.62152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.847328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed No21c191$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.112934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa15b…200fbacked No16c186$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.761435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes72c178.47$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9715739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked No9c176.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.791435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes73c173$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.712948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked Yes71c171$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.743145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked No17c171$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.072050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07c5…2dacbacked Yes71c170$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.31060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes70c170$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked No29c170$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.31643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed No27c162$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.163327.3%9 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No14c161.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.596729.9%20 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed No11c159.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.715529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No10c158.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2448414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4406…5eafbacked Yes73c158$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.661866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+31.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No29c157$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.532737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed No11c156.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1387.9%3 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed No9c150.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed Yes70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59e…8937backed No9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes70c149$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.72955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73e…43f1backed No14c148.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.35560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+75.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes72c148$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.441844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked No8c148$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.421717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed Yes70c138$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.42254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes72c132$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.963141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes74c127$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.022759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed No28c126$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.281747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed No30c123$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.92142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes56c121.6$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.082634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.