Movies · resolved market

Will Sinners win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00f67f2ff524e7deb115db2440d162d60f06dfdcf2615c27b80bb712a5af45ad

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,419 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes	6c	2,984$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.12	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.6wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-76%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6413…1c54backed Yes	10c	2,352$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	6c	1,989$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.68	69	17.4%12 W · 57 L	-7.5wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes	7c	1,013$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.67	54	14.8%8 W · 46 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Yes	6c	935$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.44	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-52%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	12c	919$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.88	62	29%18 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes	4c	864.11$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.53	48	27.1%13 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	6c	751$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.88	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes	5c	636.94$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	19cpaid	-88.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e4e…6db1backed Yes	7c	591.27$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes	6c	588$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.98	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1b…8bd5backed Yes	7c	530.83$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb34…2b09backed Yes	4c	503.96$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes	7c	473.81$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	430.95$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.81	154	9.7%15 W · 139 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd103…dc55backed Yes	5c	369.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	5c	356.79$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb90…8dd8backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c8d…2862backed Yes	7c	291.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa284…fbbabacked Yes	5c	285.93$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	52	0%0 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes	4c	276.24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	52	19.2%10 W · 42 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	6c	259.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	5c	245.72$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.09	90	21.1%19 W · 71 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf45e…6e29backed Yes	7c	242$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9450…d9e6backed Yes	8c	233.47$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.61	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	8c	181.76$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	9c	161.83$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef6a…eaa2backed Yes	7c	154.93$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes	8c	150$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	184	44%81 W · 103 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sinners win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event