Us Midterms · resolved market
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d3f62888974b22cc027201540e714758bd5dab6e6a5aefe4bf84ee4409fe041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,325 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 10c | 4,492$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,043.24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 29c | 3,455$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,445.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,805$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,576$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.67 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 74c | 1,526$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 958.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 74c | 900$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…adb9backed Yes | 12c | 888.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 63c | 850.96$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 27c | 833.66$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.06 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…230bbacked Yes | 15c | 717$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 13c | 687$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 25c | 681.06$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 13c | 618$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 374.73$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.33 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes | 13c | 292$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 13c | 264$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +99%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 10c | 256.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +214.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 10c | 235.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 13c | 222.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +481.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…fc0dbacked Yes | 41c | 192$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked Yes | 17c | 168$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 13c | 167.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 29c | 150.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 39c | 150$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 13c | 136$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 32cpaid | +162.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 126.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…96cfbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 28c | 99.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 21c | 91.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 35c | 81.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 15c | 81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 16c | 79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 77.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 42c | 76.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 75.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 68.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 47c | 57.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 76c | 49.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 76c | 49.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8497…a3b4backed No | 29c | 49.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 46c | 47.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed No | 50c | 42.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 56c | 21.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -81%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…eebdbacked Yes | 57c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 76c | 13.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?this page
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 75% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 90% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?Yes won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.