Us Midterms · resolved market
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddd7f858348a7340427ee3426e5e837701a9d409645e7f84f8885bf0ba24881c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74e9…fa28backed Yes | 1c | 10,100$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 29c | 4,658$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.7 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 68c | 2,907$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x458a…5941backed Yes | 2c | 2,381$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 2,237$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.74 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7c…7fcbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,697$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…44dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,668$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b6…c5c5backed No | 54c | 1,005$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 745.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 532.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 442.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 29c | 350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 318.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 228.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 47c | 185$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…ad92backed No | 30c | 180$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 8c | 165.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3d…c636backed Yes | 77c | 150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…df84backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 55c | 135$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 107.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6d…cecbbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ea…524dbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 36c | 83.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa947…8a1abacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31?this page
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 75% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 90% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?Yes won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?Yes won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.