Us Midterms · resolved market
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x814133189954aac5776d0640ccb3edaacc97fb8591b079664889be77869b0427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $281,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 4c | 10,088$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.05 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes | 8c | 9,644$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.16 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed Yes | 6c | 5,431$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 5c | 4,879$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.03 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 3c | 4,800$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +444.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 3,043$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 80 | 22.5%18 W · 62 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…d688backed Yes | 2c | 2,351$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…3481backed Yes | 3c | 2,251$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eac…1dd8backed Yes | 3c | 2,030$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf7…13eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,816$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ea…af57backed Yes | 3c | 1,811$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c72…dc5ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,764$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…3cb2backed Yes | 2c | 1,761$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…350dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,741$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…22b1backed Yes | 3c | 1,705$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa68f…137fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,608$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b7…3045backed Yes | 3c | 1,606$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…dbeebacked Yes | 3c | 1,603$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac2a…54eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,586$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a4…9ccdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,538$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8089…2f38backed Yes | 3c | 1,488$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…e47ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,446$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,379$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,291$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9a…cc61backed Yes | 2c | 1,227$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…a88ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,184$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396c…6ab0backed Yes | 3c | 1,175$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf97…aae2backed Yes | 3c | 1,167$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…ab84backed Yes | 3c | 1,090$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb2…8fb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,085$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…7b40backed Yes | 2c | 1,066$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…f8c0backed Yes | 3c | 1,047$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b7…0cc7backed Yes | 3c | 1,042$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…56d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,016$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…eb60backed Yes | 2c | 1,009$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…4bccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,008$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294c…33a2backed Yes | 3c | 1,006$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7f…f8b1backed Yes | 3c | 996$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…d9f3backed Yes | 2c | 992$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c5…1ae6backed Yes | 3c | 992$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…6657backed Yes | 2c | 978$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…545cbacked Yes | 2c | 971$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…763dbacked Yes | 3c | 965$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 4c | 957.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…b02dbacked Yes | 3c | 922$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7a…b661backed Yes | 3c | 867$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a0…c022backed Yes | 3c | 867$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1e…f880backed Yes | 3c | 866$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…a9c1backed Yes | 3c | 845$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x763f…4bb9backed Yes | 4c | 833.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…402abacked Yes | 3c | 825$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…4046backed Yes | 3c | 813$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…676abacked Yes | 3c | 795$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…e95ebacked Yes | 3c | 789$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…d947backed Yes | 3c | 779$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…ae21backed Yes | 2c | 764$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…6faabacked Yes | 3c | 754$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…4f25backed Yes | 3c | 750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b68…109ebacked Yes | 3c | 738$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…da44backed Yes | 3c | 736$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…225ebacked Yes | 3c | 730$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50a…774ebacked Yes | 3c | 727$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…ed16backed Yes | 3c | 725$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…d61abacked Yes | 3c | 711$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe68…4cbdbacked Yes | 3c | 707$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…c2d3backed Yes | 3c | 698$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…c40abacked Yes | 3c | 689$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0b…bc96backed Yes | 3c | 686$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f7f1backed Yes | 3c | 682$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe37…04d2backed Yes | 2c | 677$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…997ebacked Yes | 3c | 666$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…f6b7backed Yes | 3c | 661$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…5f9ebacked Yes | 2c | 647$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…b7a2backed Yes | 3c | 638$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…fb07backed Yes | 3c | 624$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c6…1206backed Yes | 3c | 620$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac4…452bbacked Yes | 3c | 616$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…2e2ebacked Yes | 3c | 611$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…0f67backed Yes | 3c | 598$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…c6f9backed Yes | 3c | 585$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…b25abacked Yes | 3c | 581$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea9…a45fbacked Yes | 2c | 570$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…33d4backed Yes | 2c | 563$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ab…0b70backed Yes | 2c | 558$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…e7a4backed Yes | 2c | 548$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…d64dbacked Yes | 3c | 537$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fd…9611backed Yes | 3c | 530$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64b…a88cbacked Yes | 3c | 529$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8d…9ac2backed Yes | 2c | 519$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…0be7backed Yes | 3c | 499$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 3c | 498.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +481.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa368…e442backed Yes | 3c | 497$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…b62ebacked Yes | 2c | 483$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206a…fb8fbacked Yes | 3c | 473$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 8c | 461.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a0…71f5backed Yes | 2c | 460$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…4fd1backed Yes | 3c | 459$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c7…0f2dbacked Yes | 3c | 458$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d81…032fbacked Yes | 3c | 456$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8f…a08ebacked Yes | 3c | 439$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?this page
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 75% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 90% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?Yes won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?Yes won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.