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Us Midterms · resolved market

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$281,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$276,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,650 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes4c10,088$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.052128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes8c9,644$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.163243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+36.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b79…47e6backed Yes6c5,431$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.590%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes5c4,879$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.032623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes3c4,800$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.74450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+444.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes3c3,043$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.048022.5%18 W · 62 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb8…d688backed Yes2c2,351$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8538…3481backed Yes3c2,251$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eac…1dd8backed Yes3c2,030$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf7…13eabacked Yes3c1,816$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ea…af57backed Yes3c1,811$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c72…dc5ebacked Yes3c1,764$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c6b…3cb2backed Yes2c1,761$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb17…350dbacked Yes3c1,741$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa426…22b1backed Yes3c1,705$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa68f…137fbacked Yes3c1,608$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b7…3045backed Yes3c1,606$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e0…dbeebacked Yes3c1,603$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac2a…54eabacked Yes3c1,586$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a4…9ccdbacked Yes3c1,538$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8089…2f38backed Yes3c1,488$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf183…e47ebacked Yes3c1,446$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes3c1,379$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.493225%8 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes4c1,291$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.26646.3%4 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c9a…cc61backed Yes2c1,227$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a9…a88ebacked Yes3c1,184$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x396c…6ab0backed Yes3c1,175$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf97…aae2backed Yes3c1,167$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec44…ab84backed Yes3c1,090$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb2…8fb8backed Yes3c1,085$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b18…7b40backed Yes2c1,066$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcab1…f8c0backed Yes3c1,047$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b7…0cc7backed Yes3c1,042$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02c…56d9backed Yes2c1,016$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb4c…eb60backed Yes2c1,009$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb7…4bccbacked Yes3c1,008$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294c…33a2backed Yes3c1,006$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c7f…f8b1backed Yes3c996$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0607…d9f3backed Yes2c992$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75c5…1ae6backed Yes3c992$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x929d…6657backed Yes2c978$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed2…545cbacked Yes2c971$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b09…763dbacked Yes3c965$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes4c957.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.57128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-71.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3e…b02dbacked Yes3c922$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad7a…b661backed Yes3c867$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a0…c022backed Yes3c867$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa1e…f880backed Yes3c866$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb135…a9c1backed Yes3c845$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x763f…4bb9backed Yes4c833.7$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+39.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…402abacked Yes3c825$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe2…4046backed Yes3c813$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed34…676abacked Yes3c795$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d9b…e95ebacked Yes3c789$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a2…d947backed Yes3c779$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44e…ae21backed Yes2c764$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95e9…6faabacked Yes3c754$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40be…4f25backed Yes3c750$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b68…109ebacked Yes3c738$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f74…da44backed Yes3c736$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ea…225ebacked Yes3c730$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa50a…774ebacked Yes3c727$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d9…ed16backed Yes3c725$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b3…d61abacked Yes3c711$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe68…4cbdbacked Yes3c707$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a10…c2d3backed Yes3c698$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb8…c40abacked Yes3c689$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f0b…bc96backed Yes3c686$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae20…f7f1backed Yes3c682$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe37…04d2backed Yes2c677$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071c…997ebacked Yes3c666$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e03…f6b7backed Yes3c661$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6763…5f9ebacked Yes2c647$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9136…b7a2backed Yes3c638$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd595…fb07backed Yes3c624$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c6…1206backed Yes3c620$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac4…452bbacked Yes3c616$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb211…2e2ebacked Yes3c611$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba10…0f67backed Yes3c598$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59c9…c6f9backed Yes3c585$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…b25abacked Yes3c581$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdea9…a45fbacked Yes2c570$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd33e…33d4backed Yes2c563$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ab…0b70backed Yes2c558$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1861…e7a4backed Yes2c548$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cab…d64dbacked Yes3c537$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47fd…9611backed Yes3c530$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb64b…a88cbacked Yes3c529$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8d…9ac2backed Yes2c519$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4033…0be7backed Yes3c499$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes3c498.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+481.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa368…e442backed Yes3c497$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fea…b62ebacked Yes2c483$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206a…fb8fbacked Yes3c473$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes8c461.03$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.42540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a0…71f5backed Yes2c460$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd581…4fd1backed Yes3c459$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c7…0f2dbacked Yes3c458$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d81…032fbacked Yes3c456$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8f…a08ebacked Yes3c439$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.