Us Midterms · resolved market
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4375c27eb764c27d63fa887a20ee64c2b5bab5d5330f41963acc9a1875f10769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,543 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 0c | 10,004$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes | 14c | 5,349$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,596.27 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,845$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,519.39 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,358$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,985$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,737.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 10c | 2,273$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.98 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 8c | 1,391$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +444.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x763f…4bb9backed Yes | 47c | 809.94$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 643.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.2 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 6c | 517.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +481.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…f5f1backed Yes | 29c | 424.33$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…5721backed No | 71c | 424.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 394.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.04 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 382.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.47 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 373.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.25 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed No | 11c | 366.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 346.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.88 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71d…9c64backed Yes | 6c | 290$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,524.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 10c | 289.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.5 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 25c | 285.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +305.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 7c | 277.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 79c | 233.86$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab5…bd0cbacked Yes | 9c | 232.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +298.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 12c | 211$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.9 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes | 7c | 208$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.01 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 182.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.75 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 151.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed No | 30c | 138.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 11c | 126.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…ad92backed No | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 84.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 63c | 82.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked Yes | 33c | 75.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe55e…e3c7backed Yes | 36c | 44.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb258…6630backed Yes | 34c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…18d2backed No | 70c | 28.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 74c | 28.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -81%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?this page
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 75% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 90% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?Yes won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.