Us Midterms · resolved market
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2de71aa9bf166988ce47275eb0ab569e1a497fb402ba1985ab5d3892c2ee49a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,757$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 27c | 940$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes | 43c | 764$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 5c | 555$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed No | 57c | 505$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked No | 57c | 476$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 400$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 39c | 396.01$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +214.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 73c | 304.09$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 72c | 250$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 43c | 184$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…2cc8backed Yes | 42c | 154$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…432dbacked Yes | 42c | 153$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…b6a9backed Yes | 42c | 153$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…02e7backed Yes | 42c | 152$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 74c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…c2b5backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…2226backed Yes | 42c | 147$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…4b1cbacked Yes | 42c | 144$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…13f8backed Yes | 42c | 143$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…5c0fbacked Yes | 42c | 141$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc42…2f3cbacked Yes | 42c | 141$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…cc59backed Yes | 42c | 140$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac2a…4084backed Yes | 42c | 138$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88b…e9f5backed Yes | 42c | 138$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4307…4ed8backed Yes | 42c | 136$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3792…4f90backed Yes | 42c | 134$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c5…6806backed Yes | 42c | 134$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…4ee9backed Yes | 42c | 117$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4a…f961backed No | 58c | 112$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…dafebacked No | 58c | 111$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4dc…cfa4backed No | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3605backed No | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Yes | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb2…d779backed No | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…279abacked Yes | 42c | 109$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f2…53debacked No | 58c | 108$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd191…7cc0backed No | 58c | 106$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf45b…44cebacked No | 58c | 105$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…180dbacked No | 58c | 105$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1142…3a3fbacked No | 58c | 103$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636e…8841backed No | 58c | 102$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c41…be74backed No | 58c | 101$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746c…801cbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +230.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c42…fe55backed No | 58c | 99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…7ce0backed No | 58c | 99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533b…a7babacked No | 58c | 98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…75bbbacked No | 58c | 98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b1…7d04backed No | 58c | 98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…6defbacked No | 58c | 97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510a…dabdbacked No | 58c | 97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…3ebebacked No | 58c | 97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…77ddbacked No | 58c | 97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…64c2backed No | 58c | 96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f7…206dbacked No | 58c | 95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ff…c115backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 75c | 37.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…8d0ebacked Yes | 64c | 32.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 35c | 30.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…2371backed Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?this page
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 75% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 90% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?Yes won
- 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.