AI · resolved market
Will Atlas introduce ads by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabf3d6dca41667e6b13d09c3efcccb6e0f0d7ee4d6d07140c70e8ece17f265b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 2,746$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,638$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 1,448$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 623.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 5c | 594.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…cdc6backed Yes | 19c | 538.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6c…3647backed Yes | 8c | 485.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed Yes | 7c | 454$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 6c | 407$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 6c | 383$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 357.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 330.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Yes | 6c | 276$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 6c | 264$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 6c | 262$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 6c | 261$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 257.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 6c | 256$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 5c | 234$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0a90backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 6c | 192$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 6c | 186$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…f422backed Yes | 7c | 155.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e4…5557backed Yes | 8c | 124.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.