Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0f58adac11aca75e4e862bea468b0fb9d10df32164a18b4237a833f6ed6dc7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb70…41c2backed No | 23c | 2,797$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,154.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed Yes | 79c | 2,500$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 40c | 2,339$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.02 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 1,819$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,217$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.49 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 70c | 1,184$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.49 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9722…5304backed Yes | 75c | 635$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…de95backed Yes | 66c | 540.98$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 61c | 339.43$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.79 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…50ffbacked No | 33c | 322.13$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes | 33c | 300.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…04b1backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 24c | 226.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 24cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 58c | 222$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdef4…00aebacked Yes | 61c | 219.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 29c | 189.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 49c | 185.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked No | 46c | 184$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…ed95backed Yes | 77c | 154.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed No | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 103$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…b81bbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 54c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 75c | 89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…a1d6backed Yes | 23c | 82.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed No | 58c | 70.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 69c | 54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed No | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…06a5backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…caf7backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…861bbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 49c | 49.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 27c | 48.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…0e79backed No | 35c | 41.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…026bbacked No | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…f042backed No | 59c | 34.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 76c | 29.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 5?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 15?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.