Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f83130c88d65b639e47519c4094cb1607fb50e55c1660f168883643c78a87d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed No | 57c | 528.07$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.04 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 44c | 343.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 37c | 311.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 63c | 303.28$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.15 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 40c | 252.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked No | 40c | 250.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 41c | 242.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 28c | 239.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 24cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 36c | 204.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 54c | 192.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb7…1429backed No | 63c | 173.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…4a4abacked No | 80c | 129.28$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 36c | 121.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 68c | 116.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…7f0fbacked No | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 55c | 107.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…9a0fbacked Yes | 20c | 100.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d09ebacked Yes | 43c | 93.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 34c | 83.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 41c | 77.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…41a3backed Yes | 29c | 68.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 34c | 64.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…8464backed No | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…647abacked No | 61c | 48.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…c7cabacked Yes | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 67c | 39.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…455dbacked Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…61bdbacked No | 52c | 38.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…f982backed No | 40c | 37.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 59c | 34.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…fdf1backed No | 36c | 31.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7957…ed88backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…506abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f95…cc91backed Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 15?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?Yes won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.