Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34f5535a3fe405e5597c238003723d96e1aa3475104a2a8e120886a7377ea86c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 74c | 3,786$2,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…6bffbacked Yes | 72c | 2,368$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 10c | 2,200$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 24c | 2,180$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.3 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 46c | 2,154$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 47cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 26c | 1,929$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.06 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…ce2cbacked No | 17c | 1,480$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d3…df67backed Yes | 69c | 753.69$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.87 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 43c | 752.07$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.71 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb7…1429backed No | 23c | 743.08$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed No | 44c | 680.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 30c | 663.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.82 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 21c | 652.36$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 538$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed No | 29c | 500$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 22c | 499.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 24cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 404.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 70c | 400.88$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes | 68c | 385.08$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…5505backed Yes | 57c | 380.93$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…3603backed No | 18c | 357.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 58c | 340.18$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.77 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…2432backed No | 23c | 332.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 69c | 329.98$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed No | 7c | 309.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed No | 16c | 307.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 28c | 285.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 272.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 16c | 248.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 77c | 223.62$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 13cpaid | +249.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed No | 14c | 191.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 26c | 173.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 18c | 169.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 62c | 161.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 156.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…21d7backed Yes | 80c | 119$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…e430backed Yes | 69c | 117.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 24c | 110.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed No | 32c | 109.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 69c | 102.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…766fbacked No | 20c | 100.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…0b6fbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 32c | 99.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…9b6cbacked No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 31c | 90.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed No | 32c | 89.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 35c | 84.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…fba2backed Yes | 56c | 80.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 72c | 69.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed No | 42c | 67.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0820backed No | 34c | 63.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…f982backed No | 25c | 62.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…b323backed No | 24c | 59.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 22c | 58.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked Yes | 75c | 52.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb16…9757backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…d81abacked No | 27c | 48.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Yes | 73c | 45.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 74c | 44.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…da14backed Yes | 69c | 36.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…3df3backed No | 32c | 34.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…faadbacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd4…a038backed Yes | 73c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 15?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.