Commodities · resolved market
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c013e0e10d2ff82a7abb928879919fcc3cbe90fb2c1d8f26c5d44c9f5aac6fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $443,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $421,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $443,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 22,649$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.83 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…1badbacked Yes | 24c | 15,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 6c | 12,486$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.33 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 12c | 11,500$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 10c | 11,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 8c | 9,302$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.26 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…9969backed Yes | 7c | 7,353$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 10c | 6,414$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.79 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 18c | 3,534$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.52 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 10c | 3,365$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.27 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 3,334$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.77 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 8c | 3,333$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.91 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 3,003$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.4 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf963…340dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 10c | 2,800$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,720$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.43 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 11c | 2,689$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.76 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 11c | 2,563$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.82 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,342$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.89 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,307$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 2,183$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.54 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.91 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…2e3ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 16c | 1,838$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 11c | 1,809$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 6c | 1,770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 8c | 1,681$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.71 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 8c | 1,611$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 7c | 1,585$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 9c | 1,583$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.47 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,518$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.89 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 5c | 1,504$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…1a7cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,417$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.06 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 17c | 1,394$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed Yes | 11c | 1,370$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 1,266$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 7c | 1,240$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…d69ebacked No | 64c | 1,209$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 2c | 1,183$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 6c | 1,122$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,110$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,091$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 17c | 1,063$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…c0efbacked Yes | 29c | 1,037$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb772…995ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,029$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…b109backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 15c | 941.25$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.89 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 7c | 857.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a14…045cbacked Yes | 11c | 853.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cfa6backed Yes | 1c | 827$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4b…2498backed Yes | 1c | 817$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…0f9cbacked Yes | 27c | 800$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 16c | 798$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 13c | 797.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61ff…55c8backed Yes | 12c | 790.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 16c | 783$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 16c | 772$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…cfeebacked Yes | 26c | 762.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 5c | 726.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 8c | 720.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 10c | 714.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 7c | 699.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…e4d3backed Yes | 2c | 677.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd6…c06bbacked Yes | 15c | 663.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes | 6c | 663.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 6c | 649.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 17c | 540$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 8c | 503.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 19c | 500.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…0281backed Yes | 11c | 497.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 30c | 485.6$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 479.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…1763backed Yes | 10c | 474.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 466.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…c441backed Yes | 9c | 454.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 7c | 441.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 8c | 438.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 14c | 431.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…954bbacked Yes | 10c | 408.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…e423backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…99f6backed Yes | 14c | 383.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae8…87bfbacked Yes | 3c | 375$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda2…b9d1backed Yes | 9c | 368$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 7c | 366.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x199c…867dbacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…bd6bbacked Yes | 14c | 352$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 12c | 347.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 332.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…07b7backed Yes | 33c | 306.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.