Commodities · resolved market
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee833cddfaed8154a3c19daeba5d88e44c0e7102ac1cb40e50516daa12837c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f0b…bc96backed Yes | 3c | 2,951$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 2,627$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae6…6fefbacked Yes | 3c | 2,417$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…276dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,354$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878b…456cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,239$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…cdc8backed Yes | 3c | 2,206$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…5bc5backed Yes | 3c | 1,738$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea0…3f21backed Yes | 3c | 1,412$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ff…1976backed Yes | 3c | 1,406$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…7c32backed Yes | 3c | 1,405$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,390$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3607…9a9cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,369$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…6dbfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,078$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…5d56backed Yes | 10c | 1,038$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 970.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…1d43backed Yes | 2c | 915.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed Yes | 3c | 901.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7a…f00abacked Yes | 1c | 875$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed96…2e78backed Yes | 2c | 872$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…fd52backed Yes | 1c | 872$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…a682backed Yes | 3c | 860$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f68…f6e4backed Yes | 10c | 849$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8c…38c5backed Yes | 1c | 840$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba18…c855backed Yes | 3c | 836$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…fbc8backed Yes | 3c | 830$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e52…3757backed Yes | 3c | 827$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 823.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1517…b032backed Yes | 10c | 810$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 793.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…3f66backed Yes | 10c | 793$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 756.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…6452backed Yes | 3c | 707$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899a…2aedbacked Yes | 2c | 683$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b82…83acbacked Yes | 3c | 673$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570d…7acbbacked Yes | 10c | 670$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…61bebacked Yes | 3c | 642$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 636$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6e57backed Yes | 3c | 615$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 2c | 613.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a30…c39abacked Yes | 3c | 606$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7f…91e2backed Yes | 3c | 576$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 3c | 555$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209b…5540backed Yes | 3c | 540$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c4…daf1backed Yes | 3c | 514$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 3c | 508.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…2dc9backed Yes | 3c | 466$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…ff3cbacked Yes | 3c | 428.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 384.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 195.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 11c | 104.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.