Commodities · resolved market
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09640c8f13940eb7cd86696f89c67925564ec9aac139bc3c1b9913c6202f9671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 8c | 7,577$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 5,590$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.42 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…a718backed Yes | 5c | 4,100$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a3…a4a8backed Yes | 6c | 4,060$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…62dabacked Yes | 6c | 3,338$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,919$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacdc…32ebbacked Yes | 6c | 2,909$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 2,603$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 6c | 2,486$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.65 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…2770backed Yes | 6c | 2,401$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…59b1backed Yes | 6c | 2,102$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 7c | 2,067$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,048$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 7c | 2,032$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…56a3backed Yes | 6c | 1,663$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,531$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…66a7backed Yes | 6c | 1,455$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,381$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,378$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf963…340dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,284$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 1,191$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,046$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,023$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…4e2dbacked Yes | 5c | 976$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 956.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…4a53backed Yes | 6c | 935$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0b…3d79backed Yes | 5c | 892$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8194…8609backed Yes | 5c | 883$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…bc2ebacked Yes | 5c | 817$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0933…df42backed Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…0466backed Yes | 5c | 724$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…ab50backed Yes | 7c | 680.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 656.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 4c | 650$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dd…7446backed Yes | 5c | 606$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 7c | 600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…08e2backed Yes | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 597.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7c…a833backed Yes | 8c | 566.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d5…dd66backed Yes | 5c | 529$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c86…3979backed Yes | 5c | 525$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…3c31backed Yes | 5c | 524$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…b5bdbacked Yes | 6c | 510.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…3978backed Yes | 5c | 505$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…e4d3backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…8b40backed Yes | 6c | 488.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…8cf6backed Yes | 2c | 482$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b7…9a11backed Yes | 5c | 465$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ba…62d3backed Yes | 5c | 461$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…46d0backed Yes | 5c | 460.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4a…d3b1backed Yes | 5c | 454$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 6c | 431.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…c148backed Yes | 3c | 410$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aad…b014backed Yes | 5c | 399$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 391.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…c4a1backed Yes | 5c | 389$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…0357backed Yes | 3c | 386$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973f…72ccbacked Yes | 10c | 365.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc46…515bbacked Yes | 5c | 365$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bf…fc0cbacked Yes | 4c | 352$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…a8c3backed Yes | 6c | 336.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b0…d3fabacked Yes | 5c | 330$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 319.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…42d1backed Yes | 5c | 313$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d9…2999backed Yes | 5c | 302$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fa…71e0backed Yes | 9c | 292.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 285.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 277.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…7656backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 8c | 240.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…735abacked Yes | 5c | 229.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 221.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a80…cfdcbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 7c | 193.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe17d…1c73backed Yes | 8c | 190.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 6c | 181$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.