Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31e52178b76b00a6d414ea5707281ccb672d1afe17e27b52645c04dc15766a5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5eb5…0727backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf468…13f0backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes | 25c | 2,841$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 75c | 1,597$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 56c | 1,490$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed No | 75c | 1,031$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 50c | 999$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 14c | 963$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 50c | 852$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked No | 80c | 706$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…ea4ebacked Yes | 70c | 690.64$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 80c | 688$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 20c | 646$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…e296backed Yes | 20c | 633$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 23c | 631$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 77c | 631$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 10c | 572$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 30c | 556.37$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.23 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 10c | 556$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 518.36$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.45 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked Yes | 21c | 505$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes | 20c | 427$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 80c | 384$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…469fbacked No | 80c | 324$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 80c | 309$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 37c | 275.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.94 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed No | 80c | 266$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 20c | 266$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 79c | 265$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 80c | 262$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 20c | 261$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 23c | 257.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…8bf6backed Yes | 20c | 247$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 39c | 246.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 20c | 244$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked No | 79c | 240$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 234.85$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.81 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed No | 75c | 225$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -81%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 25c | 217.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed Yes | 20c | 215$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +191.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…2877backed No | 15c | 196.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 55c | 178.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed No | 80c | 171$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed Yes | 16c | 167.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.13 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 147.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 50c | 147$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 23c | 132.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.61 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 14c | 130.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebe…f194backed Yes | 20c | 115.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 110.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 80c | 105$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 67c | 99.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d6…358fbacked Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 37c | 88.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 61c | 79.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked Yes | 20c | 79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 17c | 72.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 38c | 70.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 67.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 25c | 62.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 80c | 60.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 44c | 58.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0680…db1bbacked Yes | 26c | 58.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 24c | 52.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 21c | 49.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…316abacked No | 32c | 49.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…c080backed Yes | 37c | 44.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdc…b135backed Yes | 33c | 44.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 79c | 43.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 52c | 40.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 37.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 61c | 35.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…18dfbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 35c | 32.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…e222backed No | 57c | 30.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked No | 43c | 27.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Yes | 37c | 27.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7935…d347backed Yes | 79c | 26.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…4904backed Yes | 78c | 24.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…510dbacked No | 59c | 23.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 80c | 14.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?this page
- Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.