TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5eb5…0727backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf468…13f0backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes25c2,841$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.01560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+51.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked No75c1,597$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.751250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079a…3ef8backed Yes56c1,490$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.612050%10 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc94…efd5backed No75c1,031$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed No50c999$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked Yes14c963$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.181553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+65.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes50c852$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4262240.9%9 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409a…4e8fbacked No80c706$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85c7…ea4ebacked Yes70c690.64$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.451258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x611f…1f84backed No80c688$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes20c646$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick31cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2103…e296backed Yes20c633$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.4875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+80.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes23c631$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.871361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+93.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9279…9ca7backed No77c631$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.87922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed No10c572$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.491637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes30c556.37$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.234548.9%22 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked No10c556$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.821457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+52.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No50c518.36$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.4584759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x282e…3eaabacked Yes21c505$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.95450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+50.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes20c427$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.61241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+92.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked No80c384$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.21637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c6f…469fbacked No80c324$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked No80c309$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.21717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes37c275.1$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9493034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaae6…3d05backed No80c266$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd001…3ceabacked Yes20c266$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.81070%7 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+88%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde45…8238backed No79c265$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.351258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed No80c262$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.61942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes20c261$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.81450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+93.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaea…673cbacked Yes23c257.22$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.131414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-54.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1633…8bf6backed Yes20c247$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+81.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa238…babcbacked Yes39c246.4$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.41735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed Yes20c244$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No79c240$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No65c234.85$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a92…d2e9backed No75c225$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.42per pick56cpaid-81%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0574…e49fbacked Yes25c217.81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.996729.9%20 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x612d…3fd1backed Yes20c215$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+191.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No49c205$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e8d…2877backed No15c196.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes55c178.24$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.94425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-54.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed0…0532backed No80c171$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c8c…7026backed Yes16c167.12$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.131822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c147.11$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.683,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked Yes50c147$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.51070%7 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+50.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes23c132.78$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.615046%23 W · 27 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+38.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes14c130.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.62334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ebe…f194backed Yes20c115.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+148.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No63c110.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.231,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No80c105$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.884339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes14c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.520852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No67c99.97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6643713.3%58 W · 379 L-78.8wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xd8d6…358fbacked Yes20c92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+126.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No21c90$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes37c88.46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5222236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes61c79.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7619937.7%75 W · 124 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f6…bb1ebacked Yes20c79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+135.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes17c72.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.841643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No38c70.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.412147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No70c67.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.521,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No25c62.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.471,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bd5…4390backed Yes80c60.97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.386660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11dc…fac5backed Yes29c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.73435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b57…52c4backed Yes44c58.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.723935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0680…db1bbacked Yes26c58.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+94%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes24c52.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9190040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.351942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes21c49.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.858010%8 W · 72 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe2…316abacked No32c49.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c43…c080backed Yes37c44.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.322142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bdc…b135backed Yes33c44.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+199.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes79c43.04$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.11742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No52c40.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No68c37.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.42,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292b…9427backed Yes61c35.32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.724438.6%17 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22b8…18dfbacked Yes46c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes35c32.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9110043%43 W · 57 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0d6…e222backed No57c30.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.381947.4%9 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick66cpaid-32.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2971…b901backed No78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+82.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6af…532dbacked No43c27.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb6f…f414backed Yes37c27.84$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.68922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7935…d347backed Yes79c26.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf463…4904backed Yes78c24.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccd…510dbacked No59c23.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4de1…f822backed Yes78c14.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2519430.4%59 W · 135 L+0.6wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No80c14.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick73cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.