Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48b98d8024052e451d1409ad3f0d6ca037dce83ee716b0b8b78350b5ffc574c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 13c | 2,015$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 24c | 1,280$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7648…8feabacked Yes | 5c | 1,160$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes | 25c | 968$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 76c | 837$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 76c | 820$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed No | 75c | 671$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3442…240cbacked Yes | 2c | 574.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 19c | 559$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked Yes | 14c | 477$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 425$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 24c | 412$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 24c | 399.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 307.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed No | 75c | 297$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 76c | 274$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 76c | 274$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed Yes | 23c | 258.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed Yes | 24c | 247$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 72c | 222$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…b3f2backed Yes | 15c | 201.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 25c | 193$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 76c | 186$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 76c | 155$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 144.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 77c | 143$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 16c | 115.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 77c | 112.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…7a3fbacked No | 74c | 94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 26c | 94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed Yes | 28c | 82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 28c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed No | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 28c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked No | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 26c | 53.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 79c | 32.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 75c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 80c | 27.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 76c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in March?this page
- Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?Yes won
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.