Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09d4541eb34083a851aa5052def322d30d2968dd38e470467e1edb5a704e2bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 25c | 1,893$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed Yes | 38c | 1,678$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 17c | 1,321$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 61c | 1,226$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 61c | 1,216$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…c345backed No | 62c | 846$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed No | 62c | 832$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 39c | 825$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 48c | 737$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked No | 52c | 737$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed No | 63c | 717$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 29c | 688.06$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 17c | 659$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 39c | 619$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed Yes | 39c | 607$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 2c | 494.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 39c | 476$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 21c | 400.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 64c | 397$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 36c | 395$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed Yes | 39c | 391$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 21c | 378.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb2…bd48backed Yes | 38c | 299.02$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 297.71$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.42 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed Yes | 37c | 247$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 37c | 237$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 37c | 233$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 23c | 222.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 36c | 213$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 64c | 211$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 197.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 197.17$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 72c | 196$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 38c | 175$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 62c | 175$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 27c | 174.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed No | 61c | 161$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 61c | 159$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed No | 61c | 156$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 8c | 139$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 37c | 130.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 40c | 124.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 36c | 123.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…35cdbacked Yes | 44c | 114.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 16c | 109.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 95.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 86.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 21c | 84.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 52c | 78.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 52c | 75.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…316abacked Yes | 23c | 71.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 70.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…c382backed Yes | 39c | 63.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 64c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…b3f2backed No | 73c | 54.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…b9a6backed Yes | 39c | 53.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a5eabacked No | 80c | 52.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…e044backed Yes | 40c | 50.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 63c | 49.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…2d49backed Yes | 57c | 46.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361d…51f0backed Yes | 43c | 46.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…c080backed No | 45c | 45.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 61c | 43.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x535d…bb3fbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…28c0backed No | 64c | 39.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…e222backed No | 57c | 37.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…11f0backed No | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 34.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked Yes | 36c | 33.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 34c | 32.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…ee44backed Yes | 39c | 32.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 72c | 32.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 66c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 57c | 21.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed No | 77c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 68c | 17.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?this page
- Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?Yes won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.