Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will BNB dip to $600 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa57392cbb249f1bf818efaf81b9ec7839f6a8658542bd13ba78ce80b8bb313c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,284$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 31c | 686$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 69c | 686$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 19c | 620$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 18c | 444$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 18c | 421$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 17c | 103.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.05 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4879…808fbacked Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 49c | 95.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ab…216ebacked Yes | 42c | 65.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…1725backed Yes | 43c | 56.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BNB dip to $600 in March?this page
- Will BNB dip to $200 in March?No won
- Will BNB dip to $300 in March?No won
- Will BNB dip to $400 in March?No won
- Will BNB dip to $500 in March?No won
- Will BNB reach $1,000 in March?No won
- Will BNB reach $1,100 in March?No won
- Will BNB reach $700 in March?No won
- Will BNB reach $800 in March?No won
- Will BNB reach $900 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.