Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will BNB reach $700 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd164401331d826cf4b597d6df5c9c5514d7e666311c568759b95cd9d184b9f49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 1,412$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.72 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,387$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 786.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 512.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 63c | 371.74$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 11c | 281$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 210.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…a17abacked Yes | 63c | 180.91$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…f95ebacked Yes | 29c | 168.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 7c | 153.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d0…ef39backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…7d17backed Yes | 37c | 80.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528b…62e9backed Yes | 66c | 75.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…28efbacked Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…5667backed Yes | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f27…8bf7backed No | 64c | 37.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…67a4backed Yes | 36c | 35.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe772…9084backed No | 71c | 29.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…9cb0backed No | 78c | 15.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BNB reach $700 in March?this page
- Will BNB dip to $200 in March?No won
- Will BNB dip to $300 in March?No won
- Will BNB dip to $400 in March?No won
- Will BNB dip to $500 in March?No won
- Will BNB dip to $600 in March?Yes won
- Will BNB reach $1,000 in March?No won
- Will BNB reach $1,100 in March?No won
- Will BNB reach $800 in March?No won
- Will BNB reach $900 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.