Movies · resolved market

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdda3b8332301f7ce71d68f687693e461bb86af6df1945e2b5d2c549db5f91708

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $69,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,445 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe7db…feb0backed Yes	10c	8,688$891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$891.41	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-38%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes	0c	7,535$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	-6.9wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-43%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea96…11e3backed Yes	12c	6,000$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+2.9wins	+0.13per pick	26cpaid	+6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes	30c	4,747$1,442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,442.27	326	39.3%128 W · 198 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	5c	2,300$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.7	473	28.3%134 W · 339 L	-32.8wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x90d6…997abacked Yes	14c	1,500$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x426e…acd0backed Yes	6c	1,400$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd9…d4c9backed Yes	14c	1,332$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.96	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-60%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed Yes	22c	1,055$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.1	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+4.6wins	+0.21per pick	47cpaid	+49.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ea…4524backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de9…e633backed Yes	13c	999.99$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab38…77febacked Yes	22c	925$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.5	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed No	77c	839$646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.97	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	-7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed Yes	23c	804$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.92	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8acf…2f7bbacked No	78c	766$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.52	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	600$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes	23c	585$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.55	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed No	77c	558$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.34	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	3c	554.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	59	11.9%7 W · 52 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc2…40d7backed No	78c	545$425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.9	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66f1…2dd9backed No	69c	507.05$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.72	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5440…edd4backed Yes	6c	479.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes	22c	459$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.98	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No	78c	428$334 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.16	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes	22c	419$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.18	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-50%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed No	78c	419$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.18	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-30%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes	25c	401.26$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.03	285	24.2%69 W · 216 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes	3c	400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	134	40.3%54 W · 80 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ee…5adebacked No	78c	380$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.6	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes	4c	379.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-6.1wins	-0.12per pick	36cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	30c	333.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	331$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	90	1.1%1 W · 89 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	6cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes	22c	313$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.86	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed No	78c	313$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.86	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	19c	306$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.38	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed No	78c	289$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.58	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes	23c	255.37$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.98	187	46%86 W · 101 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-20%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked No	78c	234$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.68	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd2b…ebedbacked Yes	22c	214$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.08	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	34cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	210$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	116	4.3%5 W · 111 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	114	21.9%25 W · 89 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6579…e275backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed Yes	22c	187$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.14	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed No	78c	187$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.14	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	159.14$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.2	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes	34c	132.18$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.94	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7775…6cb4backed No	78c	130$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.6	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x144d…06c2backed Yes	27c	106.97$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc18e…e4eabacked Yes	13c	105$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2eb…c299backed Yes	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes	22c	99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.78	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-3.3wins	-0.12per pick	38cpaid	-38%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	12c	90.85$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	30c	89$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.83	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d9d…127bbacked Yes	23c	86.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0fe…ce41backed Yes	28c	70.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…0c48backed No	71c	70$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.3	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	77c	57.19$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.04	672	32%215 W · 457 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a3…880bbacked Yes	25c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes	28c	38.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	98	51%50 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffba…7f6ebacked No	74c	32.46$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.49	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	72c	28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.84	208	50%104 W · 104 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?this page
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 30m?No won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 27m?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event