Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 30m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f60d6995cba31b1345caef7c2e13d13d462fb6077c67707a280af94b996d191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5ea…4524backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…9032backed Yes | 1c | 4,251$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…5a51backed Yes | 2c | 4,108$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,151$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 9c | 3,100$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.54 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 4c | 3,010$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6aa1backed Yes | 7c | 2,325$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 1,949$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 3c | 1,444$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…4d88backed Yes | 3c | 1,240$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,142$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…b99bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6421…1857backed Yes | 2c | 933.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 690.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 684.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 623.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 16c | 619.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 9c | 232$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 8c | 216.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 177$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3a…0d98backed Yes | 7c | 147.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 34c | 97.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 35c | 69.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 67c | 66.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 30m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 27m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.