Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 27m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f25c2d03ba72700aff175a71e8d70cd1cf814c505ad3cb554d1b9adb71a92f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 12c | 22,203$2,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,597.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 72c | 10,912$7,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,046.62 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ca4bbacked No | 13c | 3,190$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…c826backed No | 19c | 1,349$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.5 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…46e6backed No | 17c | 1,251$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 11c | 1,117$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…4d88backed No | 8c | 882.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…de5ebacked No | 5c | 794.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 58c | 788$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.96 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 58c | 784$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.28 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 61c | 769.49$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.1 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 13c | 701.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 69c | 680.8$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.02 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 643.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked No | 42c | 636$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.12 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 42c | 487$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.54 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 482.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe46e…92c3backed No | 22c | 436.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eed…c3a5backed No | 8c | 425$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 31c | 312.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 79c | 307.61$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked No | 16c | 305.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…986cbacked No | 42c | 297$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c7…9450backed No | 5c | 283.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…3ba9backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 66c | 243.97$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7d…5bd2backed No | 19c | 222.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a5…fe83backed Yes | 52c | 221.86$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 61c | 210$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 7c | 175.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked No | 42c | 175.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 169.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb95b…b009backed Yes | 62c | 168$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 15c | 167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…06c2backed Yes | 80c | 165.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 13c | 164$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 11c | 157.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 42c | 152$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…1282backed Yes | 69c | 145.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…5fd6backed No | 49c | 145.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…edd4backed No | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 55c | 80.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 72.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 44c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 65.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…8b6fbacked Yes | 78c | 63.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 37c | 40.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 38.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 34c | 33.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa22…ab93backed Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 79c | 28.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…1bd6backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 27m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 30m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.