TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Mills flip Platner for Maine Dem Senate Primary Winner by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,145
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,145 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7407…19bebacked Yes19c1,416$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.041127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed No76c1,248$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes31c1,042$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed No79c987$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked No69c937$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.47425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked No74c912$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.121258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes25c893$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes24c828$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.05812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes26c817$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+376.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes23c791$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed No69c777$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.871154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No79c743$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.031233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No74c726$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.76650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7546…2d93backed No75c720$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No77c699$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.771723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7176…6f9fbacked No74c681$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.06683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+67.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed No77c675$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes26c671$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes31c630$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.541330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes23c627$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes23c609$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x319c…4a94backed No69c602$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.623100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+180.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…8085backed Yes25c601$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.31650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked Yes24c570$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15b…200fbacked No70c533$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed Yes21c528$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-42.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked Yes23c512$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb73e…975ebacked No69c486$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.66475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed Yes20c481$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e4…b332backed Yes26c474$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.24944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed No74c472$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.72771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes31c466$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes30c454$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes4c443.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.131041%1 W · 103 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-88.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked No77c422$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa1…827bbacked No69c421$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed No80c420$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…cd52backed Yes31c408$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes31c404$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.24850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes21c385$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.85742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd008…e9dbbacked Yes30c385$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1c…7406backed No77c382.66$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed Yes31c363$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c6…c2dfbacked No69c361$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed Yes26c353$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.78742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…b7d3backed No69c350$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+115.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed Yes31c342$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f3d…9ef2backed Yes31c320$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes19c296$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.241163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No76c291$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.84862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47d…907bbacked Yes26c290$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e1…d9c1backed Yes12c285$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes30c279$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No77c275$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.251637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd8…8f4bbacked Yes35c249$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed Yes35c239$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.65650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+86.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed No70c238$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes8c232.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.232055%11 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked No65c222$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed Yes21c215$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.151631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed Yes31c203$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.931145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9322…01e3backed Yes23c199$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa400…ec34backed No65c197$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.95742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes10c195$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.524831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes35c189$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+68.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a6e…88adbacked Yes35c186$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed No69c184$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.04650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2f…a8aabacked No65c182$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1587…901abacked No70c178$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09be…76d5backed Yes12c178$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.36922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc771…e858backed Yes26c177$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.02475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+84%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked No69c174$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.943100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No75c173$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes35c170$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes31c170$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed Yes12c169$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.28955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9464…b4cbbacked No65c160$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed No80c160$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes35c154$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.91040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked Yes30c152$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed Yes30c149$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes30c148$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked No65c145$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.75850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked No74c125$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked Yes23c125$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed No70c123$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…bcf0backed Yes35c122$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+194.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b2…4677backed Yes37c115.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54af…415ebacked No69c114$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed Yes19c113$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.471050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No77c110$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-71.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed Yes23c110$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed No80c101$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-51.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes17c98.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-78.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59f3…a7fabacked No65c95$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+111.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed No70c91$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+55.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f58…e29abacked No65c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.