Music · resolved market
Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 75k and 100k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a54e71c41bc3a2cd6b1d5fb74575dc1185e6ddd8840839a6fe33957964c61b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 29c | 849$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 15c | 763$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 71c | 746$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked No | 78c | 703$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes | 22c | 659$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 80c | 594$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 20c | 590$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 24c | 540$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 71c | 532$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed No | 78c | 515$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 76c | 514$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…a94dbacked Yes | 22c | 511$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 19c | 508$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…482abacked Yes | 6c | 488.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed No | 80c | 470$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 20c | 442$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed Yes | 29c | 434$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 79c | 424$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 23c | 389$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked No | 77c | 389$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 25c | 388$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes | 20c | 384$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked No | 77c | 383$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 23c | 383$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked Yes | 19c | 357$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 4c | 320.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 71c | 317$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28a…a062backed Yes | 7c | 303.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…ea4ebacked Yes | 13c | 298$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…78c4backed No | 62c | 287$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…10a5backed Yes | 38c | 287$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 78c | 270$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 22c | 264$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 80c | 249$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 29c | 235$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 228.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed Yes | 20c | 223$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 80c | 223$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes | 19c | 217$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 20c | 217$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed No | 71c | 217$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +248.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 29c | 217$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 216.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 76c | 189$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked Yes | 13c | 188$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 71c | 166$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 13c | 159$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…c285backed No | 78c | 148$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 144.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 80c | 126$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed Yes | 24c | 123$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…1282backed Yes | 42c | 96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 91.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…c516backed No | 77c | 86.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…74f2backed Yes | 13c | 78.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 75.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 59c | 60.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 59c | 53.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed Yes | 33c | 48.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…5106backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…c317backed Yes | 35c | 37.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…2814backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 19.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 75k and 100k?this page
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be at least 200k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 100k and 125k?Yes won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 125k and 150k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 150k and 175k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 175k and 200k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be less than 75k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.