Music · resolved market
Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be at least 200k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17c497be534c8ea49f84b3e8e8ae40bf044845e04721c07427fe4f4293e26f44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 1,995$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 59c | 1,281$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.7 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…4b7bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,048$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…8c0ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,040$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed Yes | 11c | 1,016$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 27c | 936.95$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 11c | 859.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 11c | 848$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 831.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 5c | 820.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…ea4ebacked Yes | 11c | 650$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c2…cde3backed Yes | 6c | 627.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 7c | 623.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 11c | 597$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 11c | 591$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 548.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 518.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…3111backed Yes | 11c | 494.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…50c6backed Yes | 22c | 448.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 12c | 432$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed No | 32c | 430.01$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.96 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 398.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 21c | 394.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.26 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes | 11c | 379$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…c780backed Yes | 41c | 365.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Yes | 53c | 357.97$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 12c | 346$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes | 11c | 342$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 10c | 339.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked Yes | 12c | 338$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 325$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1c…a137backed Yes | 9c | 298.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…ac43backed Yes | 7c | 298.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 11c | 298$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…b50cbacked Yes | 32c | 287.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed Yes | 12c | 284$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 278.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…91adbacked Yes | 73c | 275.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed Yes | 11c | 273$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 11c | 270$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 11c | 268$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 240.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…768cbacked Yes | 15c | 237.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked Yes | 11c | 236$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 235.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 232.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes | 11c | 211$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed Yes | 11c | 205$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…3cc4backed Yes | 18c | 194.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba44…87f0backed No | 41c | 176.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed Yes | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2f…0291backed No | 45c | 106.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7c…f63dbacked Yes | 18c | 93.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756f…3d7ebacked Yes | 18c | 85.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 25c | 78.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b8…c757backed Yes | 75c | 73.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…01f4backed Yes | 17c | 72.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes | 17c | 71.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 73c | 62.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3531backed Yes | 33c | 60.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 46.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 46c | 39.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 36c | 32.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 29.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f12…4cabbacked Yes | 69c | 29.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…46e5backed Yes | 72c | 26.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 77c | 25.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked Yes | 55c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c4…909dbacked No | 61c | 21.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742b…2d45backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be at least 200k?this page
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 100k and 125k?Yes won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 125k and 150k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 150k and 175k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 175k and 200k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 75k and 100k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be less than 75k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.