Music · resolved market
Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 100k and 125k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63ef16b2bc7826a1d5a75874677796bd594a8bbaa73ea11b9701d5650e15f704
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 75c | 1,696$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 21c | 1,053$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.04 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…482abacked No | 4c | 677.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 52c | 598.45$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.82 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 20c | 590.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.36 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 39c | 546.01$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.36 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 58c | 499$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed No | 42c | 492$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 491.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.12 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 58c | 478$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed No | 20c | 472.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…8c0ebacked No | 60c | 471.48$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 59c | 435$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed Yes | 58c | 413$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 41c | 398$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes | 59c | 365$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 42c | 355$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 42c | 353$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked Yes | 43c | 317.78$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 42c | 282$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 29c | 217.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…6279backed No | 42c | 196$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 41c | 181$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 50c | 179$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 149.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 147.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 41c | 147$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28a…a062backed Yes | 43c | 140.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 58c | 133$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8c…30bbbacked Yes | 23c | 129.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +337.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 44c | 114.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 29c | 101.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 98.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6959…0ad6backed Yes | 32c | 93.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 11c | 92.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f7…1a91backed Yes | 39c | 90.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 58c | 76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 68.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…671abacked Yes | 45c | 64.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 58.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…83f2backed Yes | 40c | 50.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…e633backed Yes | 36c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 77c | 47.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…2896backed No | 76c | 46.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…6f5abacked No | 79c | 39.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 76c | 39.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 69cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d7a1backed No | 70c | 36.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…4d58backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ba…a8abbacked Yes | 39c | 30.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…4a78backed No | 72c | 24.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…c516backed No | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…53e3backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…f11fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…cd0dbacked No | 78c | 16.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 100k and 125k?this page
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be at least 200k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 125k and 150k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 150k and 175k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 175k and 200k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 75k and 100k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be less than 75k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.