Music · resolved market
Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 150k and 175k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa725e61d5c0599f7880fc0e22e0cb9773a74f484524203118874e6f2657c1782
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 26c | 937$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 10c | 571.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 74c | 532$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 74c | 380$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 25c | 316$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed No | 75c | 316$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 5c | 303.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed Yes | 6c | 274.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed Yes | 5c | 258.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 250.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…ac43backed Yes | 7c | 160.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x887d…1727backed Yes | 15c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…b50cbacked Yes | 19c | 58.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 150k and 175k?this page
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be at least 200k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 100k and 125k?Yes won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 125k and 150k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 175k and 200k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 75k and 100k?No won
- Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be less than 75k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.