NFL · resolved market
Will John Harbaugh be fired by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x238e99553460bac590aebd0e013fd2afb9ad22852534569ee7c1c1751711d521
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 60c | 4,993$3,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.95 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 21c | 2,790$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 79c | 1,870$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 78c | 1,362$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.64 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 1,142$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 21c | 1,110$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.9 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed No | 12c | 1,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 51c | 695$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 51c | 615$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked No | 49c | 534$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 49c | 525$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…ce4cbacked Yes | 20c | 498.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.34 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 58c | 301$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed Yes | 18c | 187.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…8f85backed Yes | 16c | 153.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +383.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…46fabacked Yes | 30c | 143.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 138.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 125$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c3…d764backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked Yes | 21c | 108.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Yes | 21c | 101.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…d8b4backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Yes | 23c | 92.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 22c | 91.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 84.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…ff83backed Yes | 17c | 83.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 33c | 64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…0fc9backed Yes | 23c | 60.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 55.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 26c | 43.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 42.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 80c | 42.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…d8b8backed Yes | 44c | 40.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…1e95backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 78c | 38.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…2c40backed No | 79c | 26.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 23.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.7wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…ca67backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…d5d8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Harbaugh be fired by February 28?this page
- Will Jim Harbaugh be fired by February 28?No won
- Will Kevin Stefanski be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Matt LaFleur be fired by February 28?No won
- Will Mike Kafka be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Mike McCoy be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Mike McDaniel be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Mike Tomlin be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Pete Carroll be fired by February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.