NFL · resolved market
Will Mike McCoy be fired by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1afd85bf95523450a692c6ecfbf2941be3dbeaee2a592d1d7f8e516430838e55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 2,509$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 6c | 2,385$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…e48ebacked No | 2c | 1,648$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 33c | 993$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed No | 67c | 955$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 33c | 908$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 34c | 840$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 74c | 795$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…9767backed No | 67c | 742$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 66c | 619$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 67c | 616$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…ce4cbacked No | 5c | 600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 33c | 518$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 33c | 515$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed No | 67c | 505$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 78c | 452$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 22c | 442$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed Yes | 33c | 434$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 67c | 397$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 67c | 369$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed No | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed No | 26c | 357$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed Yes | 33c | 333$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 4c | 331.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 26c | 325$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 302.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 33c | 272$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed No | 67c | 270$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 66c | 221$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 9c | 203.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 7c | 167.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed No | 67c | 158$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Yes | 47c | 113$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 26c | 113$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 33c | 103$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked No | 67c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +206.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 47.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab1a…cd12backed Yes | 35c | 42.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7e…70f8backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 50c | 32.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…46fabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…2987backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…7163backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…cd0dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 69c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae0b…cee7backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike McCoy be fired by February 28?this page
- Will Jim Harbaugh be fired by February 28?No won
- Will John Harbaugh be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Kevin Stefanski be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Matt LaFleur be fired by February 28?No won
- Will Mike Kafka be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Mike McDaniel be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Mike Tomlin be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Pete Carroll be fired by February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.