NFL · resolved market
Will Kevin Stefanski be fired by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd60f5bdd1dc632e4f818248110ddffce96456ebc51dc28a7f3288aba52f9c739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,855$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 2,284$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 73c | 1,361$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.78 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 23c | 845$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 13c | 799.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 23c | 727$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 67c | 720$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 77c | 673$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 77c | 650$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked Yes | 77c | 595$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 24c | 586$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed No | 33c | 572$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed Yes | 77c | 570$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 14c | 530$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed No | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 23c | 419$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed No | 23c | 372$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 76c | 357$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked No | 23c | 357$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 67c | 303$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 16c | 301.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 14c | 281$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 271.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed No | 33c | 271$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed Yes | 77c | 193$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 57c | 173.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 77c | 157$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 67c | 152$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed No | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…709dbacked No | 41c | 149.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 33c | 140$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 23c | 138$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked No | 33c | 127$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked No | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 33c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 15c | 79.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 67c | 76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes | 77c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab1a…cd12backed Yes | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Stefanski be fired by February 28?this page
- Will Jim Harbaugh be fired by February 28?No won
- Will John Harbaugh be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Matt LaFleur be fired by February 28?No won
- Will Mike Kafka be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Mike McCoy be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Mike McDaniel be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Mike Tomlin be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Pete Carroll be fired by February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.