Music · resolved market
Will Rihanna release an album in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d150a287c268fe491d22719d7d984433211984ad9379f25049ab5ae249eff10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45fc…2bf4backed Yes | 33c | 57,217$18,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,881.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd5…6962backed No | 67c | 57,217$38,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,881.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f63…1c91backed Yes | 47c | 26,344$12,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,381.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…0c85backed No | 53c | 26,344$13,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,381.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 39c | 1,400$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 57c | 857$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8a…b6dfbacked Yes | 41c | 612.04$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 59c | 569.44$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.09 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 23c | 569.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes | 14c | 508$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 23c | 489.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 375.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 49c | 279.21$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 77c | 274.17$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 78c | 255.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 32c | 195.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 65c | 176.26$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 59c | 157.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…037abacked No | 78c | 153.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 43c | 151$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 59c | 148.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 44c | 99.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 33c | 89.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 22c | 83.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 38c | 82.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes | 17c | 81.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 22c | 78.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82fa…0e9dbacked Yes | 25c | 74.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…8979backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 50c | 56.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1198…cf27backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 28c | 36.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 40c | 36.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 76c | 29.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 45c | 26.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 66c | 15.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rihanna release an album in 2025?this page
- Will A$AP Rocky release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Drake release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Harry Styles release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Kanye West release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Luke Combs release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.