Music · resolved market
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3fbfb68225253aaeb1d12e8ba722b4bab1ecf67306696dd1324b4b3ff64f927
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 71c | 837.9$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 8c | 800$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed No | 6c | 555.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 17cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 9c | 264.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.94 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…ed0fbacked Yes | 8c | 155.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked No | 23c | 107$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.41per pick | 16cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9d…2ee4backed No | 52c | 96.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…97ccbacked No | 40c | 86.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691e…d59dbacked Yes | 62c | 74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 62c | 58.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 79c | 58.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…0b07backed Yes | 46c | 34.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 71c | 29.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7b…babcbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2025?this page
- Will A$AP Rocky release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Drake release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Harry Styles release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Kanye West release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Luke Combs release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Rihanna release an album in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.