Music · resolved market
Will A$AP Rocky release an album in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3402431c7265e4c7ce0e81e4b1222844fc38572f54555e8c167917b8f520b4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 38c | 1,009$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 5c | 766$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4fafbacked Yes | 8c | 550$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes | 6c | 523$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 22c | 407.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 401.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 22c | 292.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 35c | 268.96$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.07 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 256.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7925…7294backed Yes | 7c | 245.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed No | 57c | 244$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked Yes | 4c | 227.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 11c | 218.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 17cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed Yes | 6c | 189$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked Yes | 10c | 183$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 10c | 176$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 7c | 167$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…e335backed Yes | 34c | 158.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 43c | 156$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…27eabacked No | 71c | 156$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked No | 63c | 154$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 77c | 152.15$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…ff83backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 76c | 144.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 13c | 144$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 20c | 140$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d9…a3b7backed Yes | 66c | 124.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0051…a955backed No | 64c | 109.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 106.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked No | 32c | 101.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.41per pick | 16cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed Yes | 37c | 97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 34c | 89.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 29c | 74.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 71.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 15c | 66.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 35c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474a…c4cbbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 59c | 53.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 76c | 44.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked No | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 44c | 42.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 58c | 40.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…7b91backed No | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…8a86backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…6168backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…d82cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 76c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will A$AP Rocky release an album in 2025?this page
- Will Drake release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Harry Styles release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Kanye West release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Luke Combs release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Rihanna release an album in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.