Music · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69e66aa90a9e46a923feac71a756c21d5978691651a1647395d407370023d0e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 799$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 742.5$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 78c | 549.93$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.06 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.39per pick | 40cpaid | +245.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 13c | 480.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…2bd1backed Yes | 23c | 438.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 394$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 6c | 357$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 16c | 343.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 11c | 305.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 8c | 302.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 26c | 291.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 265.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 6c | 264$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 19c | 260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 12c | 246.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 24c | 235$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…9fb7backed No | 79c | 182.36$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 18c | 154$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 9c | 127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 109.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +301.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 19c | 100.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…8b0dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 14c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 75.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 17c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82c3…490bbacked No | 74c | 46.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked No | 72c | 46.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…16f6backed No | 80c | 42.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4848…1585backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 54c | 28.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 75c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 80c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2025?this page
- Will A$AP Rocky release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Drake release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Harry Styles release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Kanye West release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Luke Combs release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Rihanna release an album in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.