Music · resolved market
Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e41f270ee932dc564adf437eb8bd62beccfd729e4a8858711eecd8bb51cb196
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 10c | 691.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 676.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 78c | 637$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 22c | 432.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed Yes | 10c | 312$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 79c | 263.34$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 226.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…d68dbacked Yes | 9c | 214.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 192.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 16c | 179.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 9c | 170.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ab…eecbbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 20c | 131$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 10c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 39c | 116.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked Yes | 14c | 101.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.39per pick | 40cpaid | +245.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 48c | 56.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 54.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 75c | 51.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9a…6e47backed No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 32c | 42.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 78c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 74c | 15.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked No | 78c | 13.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2025?this page
- Will A$AP Rocky release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Drake release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Harry Styles release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Kanye West release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Luke Combs release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?No won
- Will Rihanna release an album in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.