TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,729 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes18c25,556$4,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,713.384443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No78c11,997$9,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,631.238036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes16c10,085$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.454330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No78c5,752$4,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fcd…8f71backed Yes1c3,799$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes9c1,850$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1658615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5f79…c76ebacked Yes32c1,540$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…83febacked No77c1,460$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes19c1,388$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.82205%1 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,351$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.751,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c1,200$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28269634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9630…b278backed Yes19c1,152$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.661330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+150.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b7…d913backed No66c1,119$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes43c1,110$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.32030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c1,013$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.49736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No60c921.38$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.0913943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95cc…f215backed No67c920$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82d0…9637backed Yes22c913.59$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed Yes37c874$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No63c838$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No72c805.91$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.271040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3442759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff2d…caf4backed No67c784$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed Yes27c762$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes4c757.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.12128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed No63c748$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.76333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes38c744$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes5c713.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.682343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed No62c713$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes37c698$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ea…2d28backed Yes19c690.1$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc82…9301backed Yes3c685.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked Yes17c672$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked Yes37c667$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c647.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed Yes33c644$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed No73c644$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes34c643$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.62250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x455a…966cbacked Yes16c640.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes8c630.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.818725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes37c623$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes37c600$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.45710.5%6 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No63c599$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes33c592$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed Yes27c588$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c582.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.26765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes27c577$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-77.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7feb…6bc2backed No73c565$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes38c556$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c540.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.83787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b4…c17abacked Yes27c519$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed Yes37c509$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+28.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed Yes37c503$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfceb…dfbfbacked No76c480$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb39d…7669backed Yes24c480$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No62c478$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked No63c445$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x458d…0c9abacked Yes25c435$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No63c423$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.51560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed No63c412$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed No73c408$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.16475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+89.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7176…6f9fbacked No63c407$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1510056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc2…40d7backed No73c396$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes17c390$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.915227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6ce…3c8ebacked No62c386$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes38c386$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed7a…2186backed Yes23c380$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fda…e430backed Yes16c370$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No73c368$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked Yes37c367$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes32c354.75$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.722934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked No63c322$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.14333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed Yes37c304$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d87…495ebacked No77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506f…3a6cbacked Yes23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed Yes33c295$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes16c293$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8811010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2103…e296backed No66c292$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed No63c278$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed No63c270$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed Yes38c265$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No48c255$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.352825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9837…8bf8backed No78c250$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.82742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6705…7ddcbacked Yes33c249$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfa…4578backed Yes33c248$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2f8…f38fbacked Yes26c238$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccb5…8ef7backed No74c238$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed No67c232$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c228.39$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0344111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb212…0f8ebacked No67c211$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes27c202$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6181…ad60backed Yes24c200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb24…ac2cbacked No70c198.93$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.861127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No62c194$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d6…e6e0backed No75c194$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x500e…9d91backed Yes25c194$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked No62c189$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No63c177$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.