Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbafc0ebc9bfbf27778a5b5ce68794baeb3013cfad186566baae01f3c823bd1e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $343,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $303,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb43c…29c4backed Yes | 2c | 54,321$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.47 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 35,089$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.9 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 2c | 14,788$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.8 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d3…b94abacked Yes | 5c | 14,123$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 1c | 10,941$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 3c | 8,890$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.92 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 7,054$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,979$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.05 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,562$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc379…e3a1backed Yes | 4c | 5,232$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 3c | 4,924$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,870$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec3…823bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,710$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,929$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…804dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,592$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 3c | 3,163$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15fd…8c66backed Yes | 2c | 2,801$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,290$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 3c | 2,060$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes | 2c | 2,055$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…4b79backed Yes | 5c | 2,009$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…ec95backed Yes | 4c | 1,916$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 4c | 1,699$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,662$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 5c | 1,611$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,517$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes | 1c | 1,452$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,447$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,398$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…97f7backed Yes | 3c | 1,364$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,093$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,070$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,046$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 953.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…4758backed Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…a24dbacked Yes | 5c | 867.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04f…fee1backed Yes | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 5c | 800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…c139backed Yes | 6c | 793.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c6…0f0cbacked Yes | 4c | 778.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…13eebacked Yes | 1c | 749.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309e…acbebacked Yes | 2c | 747.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 3c | 743$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f36…e52fbacked Yes | 4c | 730.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4a…e18ebacked Yes | 4c | 701.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 3c | 673.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…a23abacked Yes | 4c | 668.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…e30fbacked Yes | 3c | 667.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cf…0c26backed Yes | 3c | 641.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 4c | 601.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e4e5backed Yes | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 5c | 552.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…85fbbacked Yes | 3c | 530$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Yes | 4c | 525.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 4c | 510.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 5c | 502.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58f…a023backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes | 4c | 471.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…31c7backed Yes | 4c | 453.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…9382backed Yes | 3c | 391.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2284…5882backed Yes | 3c | 378.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…f069backed Yes | 4c | 363.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e4…92a6backed Yes | 4c | 362.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 360.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…07edbacked Yes | 3c | 344.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 333.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 5c | 331.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…de9abacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…65eebacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 3c | 288.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…4ccebacked Yes | 4c | 227.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…2030backed Yes | 9c | 216.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 152.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f82…9725backed Yes | 8c | 147.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…5a3fbacked Yes | 10c | 129.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…83e8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.