Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b651b86d9557cc1effd968da2224d44d6c08e699c1e2a1c56550780e4b0000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $434,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $354,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $434,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 3c | 25,446$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.7 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…29c4backed Yes | 4c | 17,609$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 2c | 11,984$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.39 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 10,250$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.63 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 9,079$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.15 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…4b79backed Yes | 7c | 7,790$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd780…2d02backed Yes | 7c | 7,501$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…e30fbacked Yes | 10c | 6,087$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 5c | 5,927$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.4 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 5,813$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce34…21a0backed Yes | 1c | 5,424$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 10c | 5,154$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 8c | 5,101$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.3 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…e67dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,035$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,358$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.09 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,338$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.34 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 4,274$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 11c | 4,173$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.13 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec6…1f2bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,158$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…c139backed Yes | 9c | 4,107$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.54 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 4c | 3,715$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,500$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7034…feb1backed Yes | 3c | 3,497$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes | 5c | 3,417$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…0fe0backed Yes | 11c | 3,279$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.64 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…aeafbacked Yes | 3c | 2,819$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…1ec3backed Yes | 7c | 2,686$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,639$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc379…e3a1backed Yes | 9c | 2,634$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…5405backed Yes | 6c | 2,561$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…91a8backed Yes | 2c | 2,495$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 6c | 2,481$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.24 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 11c | 2,423$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.29 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…0951backed Yes | 5c | 2,323$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15fd…8c66backed Yes | 4c | 2,210$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 3c | 2,078$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…68e1backed Yes | 11c | 1,850$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe5…2ce7backed Yes | 6c | 1,733$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,715$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.93 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8c…4bbcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,693$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,668$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,551$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…97f7backed Yes | 5c | 1,546$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 11c | 1,529$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…d600backed Yes | 5c | 1,505$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8f…1553backed Yes | 3c | 1,428$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes | 4c | 1,401$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…135abacked Yes | 5c | 1,321$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,308$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…41a3backed Yes | 2c | 1,280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec3…823bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,270$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…caf5backed Yes | 15c | 1,258$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 17c | 1,202$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…aecfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,143$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0989…1b82backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…7b32backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,073$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,061$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 3c | 1,059$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 5c | 1,045$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…dcbfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,040$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa787…97cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,036$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 1,033$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,001$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f36…e52fbacked Yes | 4c | 929.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb2…fedbbacked Yes | 11c | 917.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9923…e205backed Yes | 2c | 916.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed Yes | 11c | 913$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…a312backed Yes | 2c | 907.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04f…fee1backed Yes | 7c | 896.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…edf8backed Yes | 2c | 884.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…4292backed Yes | 5c | 881.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9908…3e8bbacked Yes | 3c | 872.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 17c | 852$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0c…1e5dbacked Yes | 3c | 808.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed Yes | 11c | 796$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 790.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 7c | 790$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed Yes | 11c | 789$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 8c | 785.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 5c | 783.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes | 1c | 780.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…220cbacked Yes | 2c | 760.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed Yes | 11c | 756$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 14c | 747$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 4c | 740.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…40b5backed Yes | 4c | 733.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159a…e907backed Yes | 4c | 732.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…1b8fbacked Yes | 5c | 726.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b68…2273backed Yes | 4c | 710.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 3c | 707.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cde…a9d2backed Yes | 12c | 676$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 9c | 669.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 11c | 667$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…804dbacked Yes | 6c | 662.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…6242backed Yes | 5c | 650.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.