TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof JD Gaming, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$425,993
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$513,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $425,993 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x161e…6ef0backed JD Gaming72c50,113$35,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,879.0614056.4%79 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Top Esports37c40,469$14,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,599.4225751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed JD Gaming63c22,892$14,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,422.0511750.4%59 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe1…4d7fbacked JD Gaming78c20,745$16,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,213.2712161.2%74 W · 47 L+10.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked JD Gaming14c19,112$2,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,587.971,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked JD Gaming76c17,344$13,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,183.741752.5%219 W · 198 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Top Esports22c15,320$3,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,966.9310446.2%48 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Top Esports27c12,071$3,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,811.9726246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe795…8caebacked JD Gaming66c9,011$5,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,965.8520354.7%111 W · 92 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2997…6c34backed JD Gaming68c8,670$5,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,923.8810653.8%57 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed Top Esports29c8,269$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,906.1719122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Top Esports38c6,596$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,096.2618945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed JD Gaming79c6,076$4,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,777.4542840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed JD Gaming71c5,899$4,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,178.621,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7441…cb79backed JD Gaming1c5,608$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.17360%0 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3c…3daabacked JD Gaming68c5,601$3,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,784.171050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Top Esports30c5,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.9882352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Top Esports25c4,497$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,371.7576639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed JD Gaming69c4,049$2,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,777.4516050.6%81 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Top Esports32c3,531$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400.9527447.8%131 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Top Esports32c3,166$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,146.0242050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc19b…a935backed JD Gaming61c3,159$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.121937.9%83 W · 136 L-0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Top Esports33c3,128$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.821,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed Top Esports39c3,037$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.0234837.4%130 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbca…3b1ebacked JD Gaming64c3,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92010535.2%37 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4cd…4dd1backed JD Gaming67c3,000$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0101442.9%6 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-31%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked JD Gaming70c2,374$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.5376955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Top Esports35c2,341$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.821,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Top Esports32c2,302$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.641,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa90…d716backed JD Gaming23c2,297$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.88757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed JD Gaming67c2,295$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5377852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed JD Gaming67c2,261$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.1764155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ab…0fe6backed JD Gaming65c2,172$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.794729.8%14 W · 33 L-8.4wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-34.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Top Esports48c2,171$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.571,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Top Esports24c2,083$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.3359558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Top Esports24c2,015$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.4125236.9%93 W · 159 L+1.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf9…5b10backed Top Esports24c2,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5206238.7%24 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Top Esports33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,34014041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Top Esports54c1,970$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.441,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Top Esports24c1,837$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.6610445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked JD Gaming64c1,800$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.991,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Top Esports39c1,709$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.9117744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked JD Gaming59c1,701$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.7637245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Top Esports36c1,700$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0863,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Top Esports36c1,700$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08896057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Top Esports41c1,613$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.0853640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Top Esports32c1,600$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0941,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed JD Gaming33c1,600$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52545739.6%181 W · 276 L-37.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed JD Gaming66c1,515$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00048353.4%258 W · 225 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Top Esports39c1,511$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.4185652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Top Esports33c1,500$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.9514038.6%54 W · 86 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked JD Gaming63c1,477$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.552,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41e…9350backed Top Esports41c1,461$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.311736.8%43 W · 74 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed JD Gaming70c1,437$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked JD Gaming71c1,410$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018755.1%103 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked JD Gaming5c1,300$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e14…8d33backed Top Esports75c1,223$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.694151.2%21 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed JD Gaming78c1,199$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.1636260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1a…abadbacked JD Gaming64c1,136$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.034233.3%14 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2521…7f2bbacked JD Gaming1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.115431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c3…8b21backed JD Gaming65c1,104$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.63756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed JD Gaming67c1,040$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7004553.3%24 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed JD Gaming67c1,024$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.1620764.3%133 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4989…8ff0backed Top Esports44c1,021$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.6312356.9%70 W · 53 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Top Esports46c1,002$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.5250242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe977…c4d7backed JD Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc872…0cc9backed JD Gaming12c1,000$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1165648.2%27 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f36…7383backed Top Esports28c1,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7201100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked JD Gaming66c1,000$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65532457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Top Esports33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6701,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed JD Gaming64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64017933%59 W · 120 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cba…c616backed JD Gaming46c999.99$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4644843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0002…103ebacked Top Esports27c899.99$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6579743.3%42 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked JD Gaming68c899.99$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.992,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98c6…3d1ebacked Top Esports35c857.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.1415246.1%70 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7c…5a30backed JD Gaming25c839.03$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8928942.6%123 W · 166 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x042b…bbf1backed JD Gaming72c803.15$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.5512055%66 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55ce…8acbbacked JD Gaming65c800$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5203056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38da…01ecbacked Top Esports36c800$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5123345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa394…89e9backed Top Esports75c800$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2024744.7%21 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa132…eebdbacked Top Esports32c799.99$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.992751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe82b…52b4backed JD Gaming70c799.89$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.612733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-18.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Top Esports40c788.78$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.081,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1be3…5b35backed Top Esports32c780.63$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.631258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e78…29d0backed JD Gaming70c752.09$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.7824248.3%117 W · 125 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed Top Esports48c748.82$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.1852650.8%267 W · 259 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee9d…85f1backed JD Gaming65c744.99$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.2413056.9%74 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed Top Esports35c714.27$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.27837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x809d…4f4fbacked Top Esports34c700$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.51145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b8…6631backed JD Gaming65c700$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed JD Gaming68c627.16$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.471,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca2…93f7backed JD Gaming68c627$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.362532%8 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Top Esports39c618.49$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.2848652.1%253 W · 233 L+2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed JD Gaming64c609.99$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.556650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Top Esports32c600$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40879653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked JD Gaming68c600$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40870162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ff7…a0dfbacked JD Gaming76c597$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.868436.9%31 W · 53 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked JD Gaming60c595.44$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.2617839.3%70 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b5f…1c63backed Top Esports79c573.25$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.382045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Top Esports32c571.69$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.751,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.