Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19370caa6dfdcc744ded864ea6effe870ff6c119fce9f09a82765bad40c5956a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $653,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $404,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $653,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 60,266$1,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.98 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 1c | 40,600$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.86 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ac…e753backed Yes | 8c | 34,901$2,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,687.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,745$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 21,405$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.15 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 18,722$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.27 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 0c | 11,555$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 1c | 10,641$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.54 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 1c | 10,320$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 5c | 9,367$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.94 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 9,318$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 0c | 9,222$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 8,054$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.07 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 2c | 7,976$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 4c | 7,568$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.69 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,897$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 2c | 6,491$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.47 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,514$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 7c | 4,770$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.63 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,562$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,089$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…52d2backed Yes | 8c | 3,076$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.01 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…cf5cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,822$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.49 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 6c | 2,716$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.23 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…37e8backed Yes | 8c | 2,570$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.91 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 2c | 2,281$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,275$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,252$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…8046backed Yes | 3c | 2,175$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +817.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ec…5a0dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,157$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 5c | 2,051$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 4c | 2,009$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 6c | 2,005$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,900$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…76bebacked Yes | 8c | 1,832$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.22 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 2c | 1,808$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 1,653$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 6c | 1,564$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,563$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,545$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 6c | 1,481$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…d67fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,373$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 1c | 1,119$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 3c | 1,058$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 1,053$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,046$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 4c | 1,043$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 8c | 1,025$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 158 | 20.9%33 W · 125 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 10c | 1,010$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…30f4backed Yes | 3c | 1,009$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 2c | 944$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 2c | 928.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 6c | 920$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes | 6c | 910$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 2c | 862.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 12c | 854.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…9971backed Yes | 2c | 826.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 352 | 12.8%45 W · 307 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 2c | 822.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fcebacked Yes | 2c | 808.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2c…038abacked Yes | 8c | 807.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 11c | 800$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked Yes | 2c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +188.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 3c | 788.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…41cebacked Yes | 8c | 683.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 7c | 650.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 2c | 631$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 608.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 176 | 5.1%9 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 599.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…f202backed Yes | 4c | 597.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 585.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 68 | 2.9%2 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 3c | 539.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…7784backed Yes | 7c | 529.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…fd2fbacked Yes | 9c | 518.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 11c | 500$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed Yes | 12c | 500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed Yes | 3c | 469.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 3c | 431.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 2c | 404.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 3c | 384.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 4c | 362.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 356.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…10a0backed Yes | 9c | 338.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 7c | 334.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 3c | 315.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4e…f81cbacked Yes | 10c | 272.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…a236backed Yes | 6c | 271.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…c284backed Yes | 8c | 260.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 9c | 199.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 8c | 197$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.